Why AI Citations Lean on the Top 10: SERP Rankings Still Matter
November 4, 2025
What the Latest Data Reveals About AI Citations and Rankings
A surprising pattern emerged when researchers analyzed over 1 million AI-generated summaries: traditional SERP rankings still dominate which sources get cited.
Around 40.58% of AI Overview citations pull directly from Google's top 10 organic results . Even more striking, there's an 81.10% probability that at least one source from the top 10 will appear in any AI-generated answer .
If you rank first on Google, your chances of appearing in AI Overviews jump to 33.07%, nearly doubling your visibility compared to just being somewhere in the top 10 .
The message is clear: ranking high on traditional SERPs isn't just about clicks anymore. Position matters for AI visibility.
But the relationship between rankings and citations gets more complex when you look closer. While 76% of AI Overview citations come from pages already ranking in Google's top 10, only 12% of sources cited match Google's top 10 results exactly.
What's happening here? AI platforms pull from top-ranked pages, but cast a wider net than traditional search results suggest. Understanding why requires looking at how different AI engines select sources and what signals drive those choices.
How SERP Position Directly Impacts AI Citation Probability
The connection between where you rank and whether AI cites you isn't subtle.
Pages ranking #1 see citation rates of 33.07%. Drop to position #10, and your chances fall to 13.04% . That's a 60% decline in visibility just from losing a few spots on page one.
When AI Overviews appear on a search result, even that coveted #1 position sees a 34.5% lower click-through rate. Yet being cited in the AI answer often matters more than the click itself, as users consume information directly from summaries before deciding whether to visit any site.
The probability breakdown looks like this across positions:
Position #1: 33.07% citation chance
Position #2-3: ~25-28% citation chance
Position #4-7: ~18-22% citation chance
Position #8-10: ~13-16% citation chance
Beyond page 1: Citation chances drop 4x
What drives these numbers? AI engines start with what search algorithms already surface as high-quality, relevant content. If Google's crawler and ranking systems haven't identified your page as authoritative, AI models working from search indexes won't find it either.
Gary Illyes from Google confirmed what many suspected: to appear in an AI Overview, you need to do the same work that gets you visible in traditional SERPs. AI doesn't rewrite the rules. AI uses them and recomposes results in a different format.
Why Traditional SEO Foundations Still Power AI Visibility
The signals that earned you SERP rankings carry the same weight in AI responses.
Content structure, clear organization, and technical accessibility matter as much for AI as for traditional search. When Google builds an AI summary, it breaks queries into sub-questions, explores them across its index, and verifies consistency to reduce hallucinations.
Pages with strong authority signals rank higher and get cited more often. The top 50 brands appearing in AI Overviews account for 28.9% of all citations Brands in the top 25% for web mentions earn over 10 times more AI Overview citations than the next quartile.
Link profiles matter too. Being mentioned on highly linked pages shows a strong correlation with AI Overview visibility. While the direct relationship between backlinks and AI citations is weaker than with organic rankings (correlation of 0.37 versus 0.41 for organic keywords) , authority signals remain critical.
Content freshness plays a bigger role in AI search than traditional SEO. AI platforms cite content that's 25.7% fresher than what appears in organic results ChatGPT shows the strongest recency bias, with 76.4% of its most-cited pages updated in the last 30 days.
Technical SEO fundamentals haven't changed. If AI can't crawl, understand, or access your content, you won't appear in generated answers. Many AI systems have tight timeouts of 1-5 seconds for retrieving content Slow sites or JavaScript-heavy pages risk being dropped entirely.
Implementing structured data helps both search engines and AI systems interpret your content more effectively. Schema markup for FAQs, products, and how-to guides increases the likelihood your information gets extracted into AI summaries.
What Happens When You're Not Ranking on Page One
Falling off page one doesn't just mean fewer clicks. AI visibility drops dramatically.
Only 15% of AI Overviews cite support URLs when those pages don't appear in top search results, compared to 60% when ranking in the top 10 . That's a 75% reduction in citation probability from simply not being on page one.
The math gets worse the further you drop. Pages ranking beyond position 10 see citation chances fall by nearly 4x compared to top-ranked content
Why such a steep decline? AI models don't crawl the entire web for every query. Most work from pre-filtered source sets built from search indexes. If you're not already surfaced as relevant and authoritative in traditional search, you likely won't appear in the dataset AI uses to construct answers.
ChatGPT provides a stark example. Only 6.82% of ChatGPT results overlap with Google's top 10, but 28% of ChatGPT's most-cited pages have zero organic visibility in Google search. The platform draws from a wider pool, but pages with existing search authority still dominate.
For brands without strong SERP presence, the path to AI visibility requires building traditional SEO foundations first. You can't skip straight to AI optimization without the underlying signals that make AI platforms consider citing you.
How Different AI Platforms Select Citation Sources
Each major AI platform shows distinct preferences for which sources get cited.
ChatGPT accounts for over 80% of AI referral traffic and strongly favors:
Wikipedia (16.3% of citations)
News outlets like Reuters and Apple News (4-2.6%) Recently updated content (76.4% updated in last 30 days)
Off-limits sources that marketers can't influence (67% of top 1,000 citations)plexity** takes a different approach, with heavy emphasis on:
YouTube (16.1% of citations)
Wikipedia (12.5% of citations)
Video content over text-based sources
Google AI Overviews blend multiple signals:
Wikipedia (8.4% of citations)
Reddit (3.4% more likely to be mentioned than expected) Quora (3.6% of top citations) YouTube (9.5% of citations)
User-generated content sites get heavily favored
Only 12% of sources cited across ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI features match each other. Even more surprising, 86% of top-mentioned sources aren't shared across platforms does this mean for optimizing for AI search? A strategy that works for one platform may not translate to another. Platform-specific optimization requires understanding each system's unique preferences and source selection criteria.
Why Context Matters More Than Exact Keywords
AI doesn't care about exact keyword matches as much as traditional SEO taught us.
Nearly 86% of AI Overviews don't include the exact query phrase from the user . Search for "Generative Engine Optimization Tips" and the AI might reference "Key Strategies" instead, prioritizing semantic meaning over literal keyword matching .
This represents a fundamental shift. Creating valuable, informative, detailed content matters more than keyword density or exact-match optimization .
AI search is conversational. Users craft hyper-specific prompts for contextual answers rather than typing basic keyword queries. Someone searching "best rank tracker for a local SEO agency" wants different information than "rank tracker software".
The implication for content strategy: write for understanding, not algorithms. Structure information to answer the intent behind queries, not just the literal words used.
Answer-first formatting works well. Lead with clear, direct answers before providing context and detail. AI can extract these structured responses more easily than navigating lengthy preambles.
Latent semantic indexing keywords help AI systems connect your content to broader topics. Instead of repeating exact phrases, use related terms that demonstrate comprehensive topic coverage.
Which Industries See the Biggest AI Search Impact
AI Overviews don't affect every sector equally.
Healthcare queries trigger AI summaries 76% of the time. Technology follows at 49%, insurance at 45%, and education at 44%
These industries see higher AI coverage because they frequently answer informational queries that language models can summarize effectively Quick-answer topics like "when is the next full moon" rarely generate clicks.
By category, AI Overview presence varies dramatically:
Science: 43.6% AI Overview share
Health: 43.0%
Pets & Animals: 36.8%
People & Society: 35.3%
Shopping: 3.2%
Real Estate: 5.8%
Sports: 14.8%
Consumer electronics sees the highest usage of AI search for purchase decisions. About 40-55% of consumers in top sectors including electronics, grocery, travel, wellness, apparel, beauty, and financial services now use AI-based search specifically for buying decisions ecommerce brands, AI platforms prefer citing review sites, forums, and user-generated content over brand websites. Success requires managing presence across third-party platforms while maintaining site authority.
Local businesses remain more insulated from AI disruption. Local queries maintain strong click-through rates because users need specific information AI summaries can't fully replace, like exact addresses, current hours, and real-time availability.
What Brand Authority Signals Actually Drive Citations
Branded web mentions show the greatest correlation with appearance in AI Overviews.
When journalists, publishers, and trusted sites reference your brand, AI engines take notice. Digital PR has evolved from a ranking factor to a visibility factor for AI.
The numbers prove it. Brands in the top 25% for web mentions earn over 10 times more AI Overview citations than the next quartile The top 50 brands appearing in AI Overviews account for 28.9% of all citations.
Concerningly, 26% of brands have zero mentions in AI Overviews. Market leaders aren't guaranteed visibility in this landscape.
Authority signals that matter most:
Branded anchors and branded search volume
Web mentions across credible domains
Being referenced on highly linked pages
Consistent coverage from authoritative sources
These factors correlate more strongly with AI visibility than traditional backlink metrics . Domain Rating matters too. Sites with DR 88-100 receive over 6,000 average citations. Sites in the 63-88 range get far fewer. Domains under 63 are barely cited at all .
Building authority requires sustained effort across multiple channels. One-off PR wins don't create the consistent signal pattern AI systems look for when selecting citation sources.
Why AI Search Converts Better Despite Lower Traffic
Here's the paradox confusing marketers: AI search drives less than 1% of referral traffic, yet visitors convert at dramatically higher rates.
Ahrefs discovered visitors from AI search platforms generated 12.1% of signups despite accounting for only 0.5% of overall traffic That translates to AI search visitors converting 23 times better than traditional organic search visitors such a dramatic conversion advantage?
Purchase Intent Arrives Pre-Qualified. AI search users land on websites further along the decision-making journey. People use AI to research options, compare features, and narrow choices before clicking through Only Click When Ready**. Unlike traditional search where people explore broadly, AI provides curated answers. Users only click when genuinely interested in learning more or taking action-Making Happens Earlier**. About 40-55% of consumers in top sectors now use AI-based search specifically for purchasing decisions
Behavioral metrics reveal the difference:
AI visitors view 50% more pages per session
They spend 8 seconds longer on site Bounce rate runs 5.4% higher, but that's not necessarily negative shorter visit duration makes sense. AI visitors often land directly on product or conversion pages, skipping content exploration typical of traditional search
If AI traffic scaled to just 25% of current organic traffic levels while maintaining the 23x conversion advantage, resulting conversions could potentially outpace traditional search channels How Content Structure Influences AI Citations
AI can't cite what it can't parse.
Pages with clear hierarchical structure (H1, H2, H3 tags) get extracted into summaries more frequently. Featured snippets once dominated by single sources are now blended into AI-generated summaries, but the underlying content structure that earned those snippets still matters.
What works:
Clear Section Divisions. Breaking content into "Features," "Costs," "Pros and Cons," "When Worth Using" makes information easier to scan and extract Formats**. Bullet points and numbered lists allow AI to pull specific items without rewriting paragraph text.
Tables and Comparison Charts. Structured data formats are citation-friendly because they organize information clearly.
FAQ Sections. Direct question-and-answer formats map perfectly to how AI constructs responses.
What doesn't work:
Dense, Breathless Text. Compact paragraphs without clear breaks risk remaining invisible to AI extractionague, Rambling Introductions**. AI prefers content that gets to the point quickly.
Buried Answers. If key information sits below the fold or deep in the page, AI may not find it within tight retrieval timeouts.
Danny Sullivan summarized the approach: "Digestible, orderly content with recognizable sources is more likely to appear in both rich SERPs and generated answers" tools to optimize content structure helps ensure your pages meet both human readability standards and AI extraction requirements.
What Zero-Click Searches Mean for Traffic Patterns
Visibility no longer guarantees clicks.
Approximately 60% of Google queries now end without users clicking any links. AI-generated answers fulfill intent directly on the SERP, fundamentally changing what "success" means for organic search.
Position #1 results see a 34.5% lower CTR when AI Overviews are present . For simple queries, users get their answer instantly and move on.
Yet nearly half (49%) of people still click traditional blue links after consuming an AI-generated answer. Users often return to traditional search when ready to buy, even after using AI for research.
Google reports that total organic click volume from Google Search to websites has remained relatively stable year-over-year. Average click quality has increased, with Google sending "slightly more quality clicks" defined as those where users don't quickly click back.
The pattern emerging: zero-click searches aren't killing organic traffic. They're fragmenting it.
Top of Funnel: Users consume information from AI summaries
Middle of Funnel: Research and comparison happen across multiple platforms
Bottom of Funnel: Clicks occur when users are ready to convert
Traffic you lose at the top often returns at the bottom, but those visitors arrive more qualified and conversion-ready.
How Long-Tail Keywords Perform in AI Search
Long-tail, question-based queries trigger AI Overviews more frequently than broad terms.
Research shows AI Overviews appear most often for:
Long-tail queries: 33% of AI Overview triggers
Question keywords: 22.6%
Short-tail terms: 9.9%
Single-word queries: 4.4%
Vague searches like "best running shoes" rarely trigger Overviews. Specific, intent-heavy queries such as "best budget-friendly running shoes for teens" or "how to automate candidate follow-ups" surface AI responses far more often .
This creates opportunity for keyword research strategies targeting conversational, detailed queries.
The shift reflects how people search differently in AI environments. Rather than typing "productivity software," users craft prompts like "what's the best productivity software for remote teams under 20 people that integrates with Slack?"
AI handles these detailed queries better than traditional search, which struggled to parse multiple intent signals in a single query.
For content strategy, targeting long-tail variations and question-based keywords increases chances of appearing in AI-generated answers, even if search volume looks lower.
When SEO and GEO Strategies Overlap
The relationship between SEO and GEO creates confusion about which tactics to prioritize.
Here's the reality: massive overlap exists between traditional SEO and Generative Engine Optimization.
What Overlaps:
Technical accessibility and site speed
Content quality and authority signals
Structured data implementation
Building topical expertise
Earning credible backlinks
Regular content updates
What Differs:
Citation tracking versus ranking tracking
Brand mentions versus direct links
Cross-platform presence versus Google-focused optimization
Conversational content structure versus keyword-optimized text
Gary Illyes confirmed: "To appear in an AI Overview, you need to do the same work that allows you to be visible in SERPs".
Danny Sullivan reinforced this with his statement: "Good SEO is good GEO" AI Overview optimization doesn't require new rules because AI doesn't replace ranking processes. AI uses them and recomposes results differently.
The winning approach combines both, recognizing each serves different purposes in customer journeys.
Maintain excellence in traditional SEO fundamentals while simultaneously building for AI search:
For Traditional SEO:
Optimize for E-E-A-T principles
Focus on high-quality keyword research
Build authoritative backlinks
Maintain technical excellence
For GEO:
Implement strategies to rank in AI Overviews
Structure content with FAQ schema for AI answers
Build brand authority across multiple platforms
Update content regularly for freshness
What Citation Volume Tells Us About Competition
AI Overviews cite an average of 7.7 sources, while AI Mode cites 9.
This limited citation volume creates fierce competition. When only 3-9 brands get mentioned in any given AI answer, earning one of those spots becomes critical.
The math gets tighter for specific platforms. ChatGPT typically references 3-4 sources per response. If you're competing in a space where 50 relevant brands exist, your odds of appearing in any single answer are roughly 6-8%.
Only 30-35% of URLs cited in AI Overviews also appear in AI Mode That means success in one format doesn't guarantee visibility in another.
Citation patterns also vary by content type:
Government sources: 11.75x more likely to be cited
Ecommerce pages: 5.10x citation likelihood
Support docs: 3.43x
News/Media: 2.56x
User-generated content: 1.42x baseline
Platforms like Reddit and Quora lead in citation volume because they answer niche questions general content misses Structured documentation like help center pages gets cited heavily when already visible in SERPs takeaway: earning one of the limited citation spots requires being the most authoritative, most current, and most relevant source for your topic.
How AI Search Impact Varies by Query Type
Not all searches face equal AI disruption.
Informational queries experience the highest zero-click rates. Questions seeking quick facts get answered directly without requiring site visits.
Transactional searches still generate strong click-through rates. When users want to buy, compare prices, or complete an action, AI summaries provide context but don't replace the final stepd queries** maintain relatively stable click behavior. Searches for specific company names or products often lead directly to those brand sites Overviews reduce clicks to websites by an average of 34.5%, but impact varies significantly based on query type. Understanding which queries in your category face the most AI interference helps prioritize optimization efforts.
Google's own data confirms people see more links when AI Overviews appear, creating more opportunities for websites to surface. When users do click from AI features, those clicks tend to be more valuable because users are clicking to "dig deeper and learn more" What Measurement Looks Like in AI Search
Traditional SEO metrics tell an incomplete story.
Traffic, rankings, and impressions matter, but new KPIs emerge for AI visibility:
AI Citation Frequency: How often does your brand get mentioned in AI responses?
Share of AI Voice: What percentage of AI citations in your category reference your brand versus competitors?
AI-Driven Conversion Rate: What conversion rate comes from visitors arriving via AI search platforms?
Brand Authority Signals: Web mentions, branded anchors, and branded search volume show strong correlation with AI visibility .
Currently, only 16% of brands systematically track AI search performance That measurement gap means most companies can't identify what's working or how to allocate resources between traditional and AI search optimization.
Google acknowledges click quality matters more than click quantity. With AI Overviews, people see more links on the page, creating more opportunities for websites to surface.
Tracking these metrics requires new approaches. Traditional analytics tools like Google Analytics may not directly capture AI search traffic, though they can track referral traffic initiated on AI platforms.
When to Prioritize AI Optimization Over Traditional SEO
The answer isn't either/or.
Nearly three-quarters (71%) of SEO professionals have already adopted processes to account for AI search. Yet traditional search still drives the vast majority of traffic and revenue.
If organic traffic has dropped due to AI-generated responses appearing at top of results, rethinking content strategies becomes urgent.
If competitors get featured in AI results while you don't, analyze why and adjust content accordingly. Look at pages being pulled into AI summaries. What format? What tone? How are they structured?
Before AI becomes the default search experience for most users, establishing presence matters. Google's generative AI experience is still being tested in limited ways, but that window won't stay open forever optimizing early for generative AI, you gain time to:
Experiment with citation-friendly formats
Test which structures AI prefers
Refine workflows to include generative optimization
Establish topical authority before competitors realize its importance
The brands that win will be those recognizing this isn't a zero-sum game. Success requires mastering both traditional search visibility and AI citation optimization across the expanded search landscape.
What the Next 12 Months Look Like for AI Search
AI search growth projections show rapid acceleration.
If current trends continue, expectations include:
AI search share growing from under 1% to potentially 5-10% of total web traffic through 2028
The $750 billion in consumer spending through AI search materializing
Further refinement of AI platform citation algorithms Continued evolution of paid advertising within AI platformsGPT mobile app downloads increased by nearly 20 million between February and March 2025. That surge shows AI search isn't confined to desktops or tech circles anymore.
AI Overviews appeared in 47% of all search queries analyzed, with projections reaching over 75% by 2028. Coverage jumped from 6.49% in January 2025 to 13% in March 2025, doubling in just two months .
The trajectory mirrors how mobile search once grew: quietly at first, then suddenly unavoidable.
Integration and convergence will blur lines between traditional search and AI search. Google's integration of AI Overviews into traditional results is just the beginning. Expect:
Further AI features embedded throughout search experience
Traditional search engines incorporating more conversational AI elements
AI platforms developing advertising systems
Increasing sophistication in AI's ability to understand commercial intent Immediate Actions to Improve AI Citation Chances
Start with an AI audit.
Assess visibility for most important topics and sample questions real customers use. If you're already appearing relatively well, investment priorities may differ than if you're not showing up at all
Week 1 Actions:
Audit current AI search visibility across ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews
Establish baseline metrics for AI citations and brand mentions
Review content for AI-readability and structured data implementation
Identify top-performing traditional SEO content and assess AI search potential
Months 1-3 Strategy:
Develop content update schedule prioritizing freshness for high-value topics
Implement comprehensive schema markup across priority pages
Expand brand presence on platforms AI search engines favor
Create GEO-specific content strategies alongside traditional SEO-12 Month Vision**:
Build cross-functional teams combining SEO, content, and brand marketing expertise
Invest in tools and technologies for comprehensive AI search monitoring
Develop systematic processes for content optimization across both traditional and AI search
Establish thought leadership initiatives to build brand authority driving AI citations on structured content: support pages, FAQs, and comparison guides. Use schema markup like Product, FAQPage, or HowTo to help language models understand page purpose crawlability. Pages must be visible, fast-loading, and not hidden behind JavaScript frameworks
Check SERP presence before optimizing for AI. Use traditional SEO to secure visibility first, then optimize for citation Why This Changes Everything About Content Strategy
The rise of AI search demands a fundamental shift.
Success no longer comes from simply producing more content. Success requires engineering content that serves both human readers and AI systems elements include:
Structured Data Implementation. Using schema markup effectively helps AI platforms understand and extract information.
Answer-First Format. Leading with clear, direct answers before providing context and detail makes extraction easier-Platform Presence**. Ensuring expertise appears not just on your website but across forums, review sites, and industry publications matters more.
Regular Updates. Maintaining content freshness through systematic updates rather than one-off publication keeps you in AI's recency-biased selection're witnessing what some call "the rise of editorial thinking in the post-writing era". As AI handles content generation, human expertise shifts toward editorial judgment: deciding what to say, how to position it, and where to distribute for maximum impact.
Focus areas include:
Original research and unique perspectives
First-hand experience and expertise
Thoughtful analysis rather than information compilation
Strategic content distribution across digital ecosystems
The quality advantage means brands optimized for AI search see disproportionate returns even from small traffic volumes A 23x conversion advantage means even modest AI traffic can significantly impact business results
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do AI citations favor top 10 SERP results?
AI platforms pull from pre-filtered source sets built from search indexes. Around 40.58% of AI citations come from Google's top 10 results because AI engines start with what search algorithms already surface as high-quality, relevant content. If Google's systems haven't identified your page as authoritative, AI models working from those indexes won't find it either .
Does ranking #1 on Google guarantee AI citations?
Ranking #1 gives you a 33.07% chance of appearing in AI Overviews, nearly double the odds of just being somewhere in the top 10. However, 26% of brands have zero mentions in AI Overviews regardless of rankings. Position matters significantly, but authority signals, content freshness, and platform-specific preferences also influence whether you get cited .
How much does SERP position affect AI visibility?
Position impact is dramatic. Pages ranking #1 see 33.07% citation rates, dropping to 13.04% at position #10. That's a 60% decline in visibility from losing a few spots on page one. Beyond page one, citation chances drop 4x compared to top-ranked content. Only 15% of AI Overviews cite pages not appearing in top 10 results .
What matters more for AI citations: backlinks or content freshness?
AI platforms cite content that's 25.7% fresher than traditional search results. ChatGPT shows the strongest recency bias, with 76.4% of most-cited pages updated in the last 30 days. While backlinks still correlate with AI visibility (0.37 correlation), organic keyword breadth shows stronger correlation at 0.41. Content freshness combined with existing authority delivers the best results .
Can you rank in AI Overviews without ranking on page one?
Technically yes, but practically difficult. While 24% of AI Overview citations come from pages outside the top 10, only 15% of AI Overviews cite pages not visible in top search results. AI doesn't rewrite authority rules; it reinforces them. Building traditional SEO foundations remains the most reliable path to AI visibility .
Why do different AI platforms cite different sources?
Only 12% of sources cited match across ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI features. ChatGPT favors Wikipedia (16.3%) and news outlets, Perplexity prefers YouTube (16.1%), and Google AI Overviews lean toward user-generated content like Reddit and Quora. Each platform has distinct algorithms, training data, and selection criteria.
How important are brand mentions for AI citations?
Extremely important. Branded web mentions show the greatest correlation with AI Overview appearance. Brands in the top 25% for web mentions earn over 10 times more AI Overview citations than the next quartile. Brand authority signals (mentions, branded anchors, search volume) correlate more strongly with AI visibility than traditional backlink metrics.
What content types get cited most often by AI?
Government sources are 11.75x more likely to be cited, ecommerce pages 5.10x, support documentation 3.43x, news/media 2.56x, and user-generated content 1.42x. Structured content like FAQs, how-to guides, and comparison charts get extracted more frequently because AI can parse them easily.
Does AI search convert better than traditional search?
Yes, dramatically. Ahrefs found AI search visitors convert 23 times better than traditional organic search visitors. AI visitors generated 12.1% of signups despite accounting for only 0.5% of traffic. Users arrive further along the decision journey, having already researched and narrowed choices before clicking through.
What's the relationship between SEO and GEO?
Massive overlap exists. To appear in AI Overviews, you need the same work that gets you visible in traditional SERPs. Good SEO is good GEO. The fundamentals (technical accessibility, content quality, authority signals, structured data) matter for both. What differs is measurement: tracking citations and mentions versus rankings, and optimizing for conversational content structure.
Ready to secure visibility in both traditional search and AI platforms? Get started with Passionfruit and see how our AI-powered approach helps you rank everywhere that matters.
